View Full Version : Hurricane Rita
Evacuation Updates Here.
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3361432
City officials said today they anticipate calling Galveston's first mandatory evacuation ever at 5 p.m. Wednesday. Galveston schools will be closed starting Wednesday, and evacuation buses are to begin rolling out of town Wednesday morning with hundreds or even thousands of people on board as shelters open to Galveston evacuees in Huntsville.
This is how it's done:
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3361863
Gov. Rick Perry declared the state a disaster area today in anticipation of Hurricane Rita hitting Texas and personally asked President Bush to approve federal aid to affected counties.Being proactive is always better than being reactive, don't you think?
FEMA has already been part of this. They have offered whatever support we need, Texas is not Louisiana. You won't see that breakdown occurring here.''Asking for assistance four days before vs screaming for help two days after? A no-brainer if you ask me.
Ummm...Gov. Blanco declared a state of emergency on August 26 (http://gov.louisiana.gov/Press_Release_detail.asp?id=973)
on August 27th, she asked Bush for a state of Emergency which he granted, yet no one came in advance nor in any significant numbers with the ability to do something for another few days (Thursday or Friday I believe)http://gov.louisiana.gov/Press_Release_detail.asp?id=976
Here's an example of the distortions that "sources" within the federal government have tried to put forth in an effort to blame the locals:
http://www.snopes.com/katrina/politics/blanco.asp
The White House declaration of an emergency:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050827-1.html
Note what parishes are missing (a map can help you fill in the blanks but as a starter, it's Orleans parish, Jefferson parish, St. Bernards parish, Perquamines parish...all the ones that were most vulnerable.
Was that too short of a time...take a look at the forecasts from the NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.017.shtml?
First issuance of a Hurricane Watch (that's a key word here) for New Orleans at 1pm CDT Sat. August 27. Landfall occurred less than 48 hours later.
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS.
-snip-
Hmmm...a warning may be required at 4pm CDT on Saturday:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.018.shtml?
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.
-snip-
Well, shit, whaddya know...7pm CDT and still no warning:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.018.shtml?
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.-snip-
Let's take a look at a Star-Telegram article from September 8:
Posted on Thu, Sep. 08, 2005
Let's be prepared to evacuate Galveston safely
By Bud Kennedy
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
We should stop blaming New Orleans' poor evacuation plan and start asking ourselves some questions in Texas.
Exactly how do we plan to clear out Galveston?
The answer is: Pray.
And hope for clear freeways in Houston.
The plan for evacuating the Galveston and League City areas calls for 150,000 people to drive or ride straight up Interstate 45 through downtown Houston to shelters in Huntsville.
A total of 1 million people in three counties must be evacuated through Houston. To be safe, officials say, they'll need to start leaving the island four days ahead.
There's only one freeway out.
Does anybody else think this might not be the best plan?
In New Orleans, residents were leaving barely one day ahead of Hurricane Katrina. Maybe hundreds more would have tried to stay had a suburban sheriff not gone on TV screaming to haul tail now.
"That's the real problem," said Bruce Clawson, the Texas City emergency management director.
"We need 50 hours' head start," he said. "The birds will be singing. The sun will be shining. People will be surfing.
"The storm might be headed any direction. And we'll be down on the Seawall saying, 'Time to get out.' "
Galveston won't have the problem that New Orleans had managing shelters. There are no shelters.
Galveston learned in 1900 that nowhere is safe from a storm surge or the looting and lawlessness that come afterward.
Definitely, nowhere is safe from a 30-foot storm surge like the Katrina waves that washed away Waveland, Miss., and other coastal towns.
Absolutely everybody has to leave.
So do the people of Texas City, Seabrook, Kemah, La Porte and other cities within the storm surge from Galveston Bay. They're also supposed to get on only one highway, Texas 146, and go 80 miles north to Cleveland before turning or go to shelters in Lufkin.
Residents of Dickinson and La Marque must leave, too, and cut into the traffic from Galveston and League City. On the western side of the county, residents of Hitchcock and Santa Fe are supposed to drive at least as far as Alvin, or 130 miles north on Texas 6 to shelters in Bryan.
Do you have friends or family in Galveston or La Porte or -- if a Katrina-sized hurricane approaches -- Pasadena or Baytown?
Do they know where to go? Do they keep a full tank of gas? Are they ready to leave four days ahead?
Now's the time to ask.
Galveston and Texas City have some definite advantages over New Orleans. They're not in a sub-sea bowl. Much of Galveston is protected by a concrete sea wall. Texas City has a flood levee, although we no longer think of that as perfectly safe.
But the sea wall is 17 feet high.
Katrina's storm surge was 30 feet.
Depending on the angle of the storm, most of Galveston Island and much of Galveston Bay would risk the same damage as coastal Mississippi, where tiny Waveland was almost completely washed out to sea and Gulfport and Biloxi were demolished for blocks inland.
"We used to think that officials and a few essential people could stay on the upper floors of safe buildings in Galveston," said Eliot Jennings, emergency director of Galveston County.
He added dryly, "After Katrina, I think they are re-evaluating that."
Galveston city emergency officials were out and busy Wednesday. Under Texas law, either the mayor or the county judge can order a complete evacuation.
"One problem was that people in New Orleans knew that if a storm came, they could just go to the Superdome," Jennings said. "We don't do that in Galveston."
So instead, people are supposed to get in their cars and drive into one of the largest cities in America, where the residents themselves now may be more fearful and more likely to crowd the highways ahead of hurricane winds.
Unlike in New Orleans, Galveston school buses will be used in a plan to evacuate about 3,000 of the poorest or sickest residents.
If the cities can identify them.
"We don't know where these people are," Jennings said. Because of medical privacy laws, they can't gather a list.
City officials will have to count on Houston television and radio announcements to reach people in need.
That didn't work in suburban New Orleans, where the broadcast stations were too busy warning city residents and didn't give much information about outlying parishes.
The Galveston officials hope they can find Houston reporters at the Seawall.
"The trick is to get the warning out four days ahead," Clawson said. "We're trying to spread the word that each family has to have a plan for a hurricane. We can open the roads. But you have to get moving and get started out."
He's been saying that to blank stares on the local civic-club chicken-dinner circuit for months, he said.
Now everyone's listening.
For now.
Hmmmm...maybe Pat Robertson will go up to that bell tower of his and pray along with the folks in Galveston (which, btw has a population just over 57,000 according to the 2000 census http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston,_Texas)
Compare that to New Orleans which has a population of nearly 490,000 people in the city proper itself (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_orleans). It also has a many thousands more people living in poverty and many more hospitals than Galveston. Galveston however, does have its fair share of those living in poverty but the total numbers are quite different as the population is different.
Now, let's take a look at some of the graphics from Katrina:
Here is Wednesday, 8/24 5pm (<five days before landfall)
http://www.betsydriver.com/postedimages/Wed_8_24_5pm.jpg
Here is Friday, 8/26 11am (<72 hours before landfall)
http://www.betsydriver.com/postedimages/Fri_8_26_11am.jpg
Here is the 5-day graphic before landfall of Rita (from less than 30 minutes ago and for comparison-same amount of lead time figured in [~5 days] as I did with Katrina):
http://www.betsydriver.com/postedimages/Tue_9_20_5pm.jpg
See the differences?
Anyways, that's enough of Galveston. I really want to know how the City of Houston is doing on their evacuation of 1,953,631 people (according to the 2000 census and geesh...that per capita income of about $20K is pretty low so there must be a good number of really poor people there http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston) If Rita (who is about as lovely as any meter maid /snark) shifts about 100 NM north of the current projected landfall at Matagorda, TX, I think the key words here will be "Houston, we got a problem".
One of the big differences of course is the speed of the current hurricane. Rita is moving much faster than Katrina did and that is a very good thing. A fast moving hurricane will lead to less damage ultimately because it won't rake the land for as long of a period. Katrina sped up quickly only towards the end and came ashore a number of hours prior to the expected landfall in the early forecasts but was still not as fast as Rita is chugging along. Ivan hit the panhandle at a good strength but was moving so fast that little damage was done (at least on an intensity basis as it's all relative).
Much can happen over the next few days though and that will be up to Rita to decide.
However, I doubt that Galveston will find as eager of a population willing to evacuate unless the city takes a direct hit. If it turns out Rita comes nowhere close or does minimal damage, the population won't be so subdued next time.
Donchya just love the internet? :sarcastic
Well, here's another whaddya know:
http://www.khou.com/news/local/brazoria/stories/khou050920_gj_brazoriaevac.77c1f3ca.html
Matagorda County (BD note: currently ground zero in the forecasts), a little south of Brazoria County, is also considering evacuation plans, though none had been officially announced by noon Tuesday.
Brazos Port ISD has 85 school buses it plans to use when a mandatory evacuation is called for. But they only have 12 drivers so far so they are asking for volunteers to drive the buses.
Meresa, maybe you would consider being one of the volunteers? Afterall, 12 drivers aren't going to get many people very far.
Meresa, maybe you would consider being one of the volunteers? After all, 12 drivers aren't going to get many people very far.When they are unable to find volunteers with CDL's, and start asking for any people to come down, I will be happy to.
Meanwhile here is a progress report:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050921/ap_on_re_us/rita_26;_ylt=AvVY7.gc_4yZ3VwLjK.nz3SCbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
It would be a great name for a new website: Hurricanes Like Ours :(
Groeten, Miriam
Think again:
http://www.news8austin.com/content/your_news/default.asp?ArID=145992
http://www.khou.com/news/local/stories/khou050921_ac_galveston.7bbe6770.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/092305dntexrita.80bef517.html
Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas told NBC's "Today" show Thursday that her city is "fairly well emptied, but we're sending our police forces ... with their loudspeakers reminding people that today is the day to leave."
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/special/05/rita/3362716
Metro spokesman George Smalley said Metro stands ready to provide buses and lift-equipped vans to help in evacuation, and open high-occupancy vehicle lanes as needed.
I myself am in the process of packing the car and hope to be in College Station sometime today. (I have offered rides to friends without vehicles. but they have elected to remain.)
Be safe. It's not looking very nice.
http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a186/brc433/houstonrita.jpg
Hmmm...sure, here are the buses...empty.
Meresa, I do hope you are not one of the many cars stuck on the highway this evening.
Hmmm...sure, here are the buses...empty.
Everyone who has not made the conscious decision to stay on the island has been evacuated already. Hopefully those buses are being deployed to pick up folks in Webster, or nearby communities. Otherwise they have no business being on the road, clogging traffic.
Meresa, I do hope you are not one of the many cars stuck on the highway this evening.Thanks. Despite our political differences, I do like you. I made it to College Station yesterday after an 8 hour drive. Luckily I know the backroads or else I would likely still be inside Beltway 8. It is very bad. Some may end up stranded on the freeway when the storm hits.
It will interesting trying to return to the city after the storm passes. Fortunately it appears that it will pass to the east. The heavily populated west side of Galveston bay will hopefully be spared (along with most of the refineries, I hope). The east side of the bay is very sparsely populated. The best outcome at this point would be for the brunt of the storm to hit in the Atchafalya basin east of LaFayette (mostly swamp).
If you pray, it would be a good idea to do so now.
At last count Metro and other authorities were doing final sweeps of the highways and getting any of those still remaining on the highway off and into shelter. Hope that Louisiana does the same. The bus fire this morning was horrific and terrible (fueled in part by the large quantity of oxygen carried in such a small space). Have not heard of further casualties, and pray that there are none.
Made contact with my loved ones still in Houston, and they are all north and east of the Danger Zone. It is beginning to look like the heavy part of the storm will pass though the sparsely populated area east of the Galveston Bay. The populated areas, along with the bulk of the refinieries, on the west side will likely be spared a direct hit. Damage to Port Arthur facilities is almost certain however, and everyone is going to feel the effects of that for a while. But the consequences will be considerably less than that of a direct hit on Houston.
We may just get lucky after all.
I am safely dug in here in Bryan Texas, 90 miles from the storm. It is still eerily calm here, and the sunset was spectacular. The bands were very distinct here and each one was a different shade of yellow and orange in the setting sun. It's amazing how something so deadly can be so beautiful at the same time.
Will give everyone an update tomorrow morning. I plan to return home as early as tomorrow night, depending on conditions.
The storm is passing well to the east now. I am going to try to make it back to Houston Today. More updatse to come.
It`s good your safe Meresa, it looks a little wet in Houston right now,
keep your raincoat handy. :happydanc
It`s good you'r esafe Meresa, it looks a little wet in Houston right now,
keep your raincoat handy. :happydanc
Thanks Jolinn!! I have my kayak. :biggrin:
I am waiting to be sure that Bray's Bayou has crested. I called over to my place and got the answering machine, so apparently it has power and didn't burn to the ground. So far all the fires were on the extreme east side.
Hopefully I can go home tonight or tomorrow.
I made it home yesterday before sunset. Took the back roads and got home in 2 hours, doing the speed limit all the way. Have power and water where I live. Plenty of gas in the car and food in the pantry. Buses are starting to run and I have my bike. All that remains is to get gas & food into town so that grocery stores can open again.
Houston looks pretty good. Other than a few downed tree limbs you wouldnt know that a storm had been through here. Many people had their yards already cleaned with the debris stacked in neat piles by the road. People are out on the bike path (where I plan to be after this post). There's no place like home!!
Still waiting for damage reports on the refineries, but early reports are still optimistic. Hopefully the inevitable gas price spike will be mild and brief. Heard a few rumors of price caps, nothing substantial. But unless there is supply to back it up, I would not be in favor of them. Better high prices and conservation than no goods at all..
We were very very lucky. Can't say that enough. The storm passed through the most sparsely populated area between Houston and New Orleans. The only way we could have been luckier was to have no storm at all.
This has been your roving storm reporter Meresa, signing off for now.
Meresa,
I'm happy you are safe, and back home and avoided the traffic that plagued the initial evacuation.
Thanks again for the updates.
Thanks Betsy :)
More good news:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050925/ap_on_re_us/rita
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